Model value
Hawai'iLikelier to win
64%
Model estimate
64%Market implied
Northern IllinoisUnderdog pick
36%
Model estimate
36%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at+175BovadaThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 36%
MarketAt lock: 36%
Model pick: Northern Illinois (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.7%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
Hawai'i 56 - Northern Illinois 21
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
+3.8%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: pick locked at +175 (Bovada), model 36%, market 36%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 37.8% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.