Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Model pick: North Dakota State (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -1.7%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | UTEP best odds | North Dakota State best odds | Model (North Dakota State) | Market (North Dakota State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET | +2200 | -4500 | 96% | 95% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET | +2200 | -4500 | 96% | 95% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM ET | +1700 | -3000 | 95% | 94% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:13 PM ET | +1700 | -3000 | 95% | 94% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:20 PM ET | +1700 | -3000 | 95% | 94% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +1700 | -3000 | 95% | 94% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET.
New Mexico 21-16 North Dakota State (Oct 24, 2026) Game Recap · ESPN, Oct 25, 2026
October 31, 2026: North Dakota State vs UTEP: Third Quarter College Football Prediction Market · Robinhood, Oct 25, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: North Dakota State 1574 vs UTEP 1241 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: North Dakota State +7.8, UTEP -27.5.
- Model estimate: North Dakota State 95% / UTEP 5%. Market (vig removed): North Dakota State 94% / UTEP 6%.
- Spread: North Dakota State -25.5 · Total 44.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Bison Travel to New Mexico to Face First-Place Lobos Saturday Night on the CW - NDSU
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.