Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: New Mexico (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -0.2%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | New Mexico best odds | Nevada best odds | Model (Nevada) | Market (Nevada) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -455 | +440 | 18% | 19% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Lobos Maintain Top Spot in This Week's Mountain West Power Rankings · WyomingNews.com, Oct 30, 2026
November 6, 2026: Nevada vs New Mexico: Second Half College Football Prediction Market · Robinhood, Oct 27, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Nevada 1433 vs New Mexico 1612 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Nevada -2.2, New Mexico +18.8.
- Model alone: Nevada 36% / New Mexico 64%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Nevada 18% / New Mexico 82%. Market (vig removed): Nevada 19% / New Mexico 81%.
- Spread: Nevada +12.5 · Total 43.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Murray's AP Top 25: A New No. 1, Plus a Current and Former MW School Join Ballot
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.