Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Nevada (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.3%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -245 (FanDuel), model 70%, market 70%.
| Saved | Nevada best odds | Northern Illinois best odds | Model (Northern Illinois) | Market (Northern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 32% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -425 | +330 | 21% | 22% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -310 | +285 | 26% | 26% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -285 | +265 | 27% | 28% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -280 | +265 | 28% | 28% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -275 | +245 | 28% | 29% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -275 | +245 | 28% | 29% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -275 | +240 | 28% | 29% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -245 | +225 | 30% | 30% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -245 | +224 | 30% | 30% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Position Preview for Nevada Football Versus Northern Illinois: Who Has the Edge Where? · Nevada Sports Net, Nov 12, 2026
Nevada vs. Northern Illinois - Live Score - November 14, 2026 · FOX Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Northern Illinois 1248 vs Nevada 1409 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Northern Illinois -17.8, Nevada -13.5.
- Model alone: Northern Illinois 34% / Nevada 66%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Northern Illinois 30% / Nevada 70%. Market (vig removed): Northern Illinois 30% / Nevada 70%.
- Spread: Northern Illinois +7 · Total 47.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Nevada @ Northern Illinois Odds
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.