Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Air Force (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.2%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -450 (Bovada), model 81%, market 79%.
| Saved | San José State best odds | Air Force best odds | Model (Air Force) | Market (Air Force) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 73% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 73% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +330 | -425 | 79% | 78% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +350 | -425 | 80% | 79% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +360 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +360 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +360 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +360 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +360 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +360 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
San Jose State Matchup a Complicated One for Air Force Football · Colorado Springs Gazette, Nov 13, 2026
San Jose State @ Air Force Odds · FanDuel Sportsbook, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Air Force 1535 vs San José State 1395 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Air Force +2.0, San José State +1.0.
- Model alone: Air Force 71% / San José State 29%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Air Force 81% / San José State 19%. Market (vig removed): Air Force 79% / San José State 21%.
- Spread: Air Force -12.5 · Total 47.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- San José State 30-19 Northern Illinois (Nov 7, 2026) Game Recap
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.