Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: New Mexico (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.8%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -590 (BetOnline.ag), model 85%, market 83%.
| Saved | UNLV best odds | New Mexico best odds | Model (New Mexico) | Market (New Mexico) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 80% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +480 | -670 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +475 | -625 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +500 | -650 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +540 | -650 | 85% | 84% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +480 | -575 | 84% | 82% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +500 | -575 | 84% | 83% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +500 | -575 | 84% | 83% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +510 | -590 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +510 | -590 | 85% | 83% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
UNLV at New Mexico Predictions · Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nov 13, 2026
How to Watch UNLV vs. No. 23 New Mexico: TV Channel and Streaming Options for November 14 · The New York Times, Nov 13, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: New Mexico 1636 vs UNLV 1524 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: New Mexico +12.2, UNLV -0.8.
- Model alone: New Mexico 79% / UNLV 21%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): New Mexico 85% / UNLV 15%. Market (vig removed): New Mexico 83% / UNLV 17%.
- Spread: New Mexico -14.5 · Total 46.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- UNLV vs. New Mexico - Live Score - November 14, 2026
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.