Model value
Bowling Green
39%
Model estimate
41%Market implied
BuffaloModel pick
61%
Model estimate
59%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-154FanDuelThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 61%
MarketAt lock: 59%
Model pick: Buffalo (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.1%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Bowling Green 24 - Buffalo 31
Units
+0.65u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-3.4%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.65u is +$6.49 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: pick locked at -154 (FanDuel), model 61%, market 59%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 58.6% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.