Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Model pick: Kent State (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -2.0%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Kent State best odds | Sacramento State best odds | Model (Sacramento State) | Market (Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET | -440 | +390 | 20% | 21% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET | -440 | +390 | 20% | 21% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM ET | -440 | +390 | 20% | 21% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:13 PM ET | -440 | +390 | 20% | 21% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:20 PM ET | -440 | +390 | 20% | 21% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -440 | +390 | 20% | 21% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET.
Ball State Football Tops Sac State for Homecoming Victory | Instant Takeaways · Yahoo Sports, Oct 24, 2026
Ball State 34-17 Sacramento State (Oct 24, 2026) Game Recap · ESPN, Oct 24, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Sacramento State 1301 vs Kent State 1366 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Sacramento State -28.8, Kent State -11.5.
- Model estimate: Sacramento State 20% / Kent State 80%. Market (vig removed): Sacramento State 21% / Kent State 79%.
- Spread: Sacramento State +11.5 · Total 46.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- October 30, 2026: Sacramento State vs Kent State: Second Half Prediction Market
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.