Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Massachusetts (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is -1.9%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Ball State best odds | Massachusetts best odds | Model (Massachusetts) | Market (Massachusetts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +150 | -180 | 63% | 62% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Cardinals and Minutemen Open MAC Competition During Midweek #MACtion, Nov. 4 on ESPNU · Ball State University Athletics, Oct 26, 2026
November 4, 2026: Massachusetts vs Ball State: Third Quarter College Football Prediction Market · Robinhood, Oct 27, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Massachusetts 1318 vs Ball State 1339 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Massachusetts -12.8, Ball State -7.0.
- Model alone: Massachusetts 56% / Ball State 44%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Massachusetts 63% / Ball State 37%. Market (vig removed): Massachusetts 62% / Ball State 38%.
- Spread: Massachusetts -4.5 · Total 48.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- UMass Rallies Around Dallas Elliott During Cancer Treatment
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.