Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Toledo (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -2.2%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Toledo best odds | Sacramento State best odds | Model (Sacramento State) | Market (Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -4500 | +2000 | 4% | 5% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
2026 Week 9 Scouting Report: Toledo Football at Sacramento State · Toledo Blade, Oct 29, 2026
November 4, 2026: Toledo vs Sacramento State Spreads College Football Prediction Market · Robinhood, Nov 1, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Sacramento State 1336 vs Toledo 1555 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Toledo has 6 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: Sacramento State -16.2, Toledo +6.8.
- Model alone: Sacramento State 22% / Toledo 78%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Sacramento State 4% / Toledo 96%. Market (vig removed): Sacramento State 5% / Toledo 95%.
- Spread: Sacramento State +27.5 · Total 51.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Kent State vs Sacramento State Prediction: Can the Golden Flashes Win on the Road?
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.