Model value
Western MichiganModel lean
85%
Final estimate
84%Market implied
Akron
15%
Final estimate
16%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-625DraftKingsThis price grades the pickBest of books. A typical single book: -650
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 85%
MarketAt lock: 84%
Model lean: Western Michigan (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.7%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Western Michigan 42 - Akron 14
Units
+0.16u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-2.2%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.16u is +$1.60 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -625 (DraftKings), model 85%, market 84%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 84.3% for the pick.
| Saved | Western Michigan best odds | Akron best odds | Model (Akron) | Market (Akron) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -600 | +470 | 16% | 17% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -600 | +450 | 17% | 18% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -650 | +550 | 15% | 16% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -625 | +550 | 15% | 16% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -625 | +525 | 16% | 17% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -625 | +475 | 16% | 17% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -625 | +500 | 16% | 17% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -700 | +540 | 15% | 16% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Akron 1270 vs Western Michigan 1559 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Western Michigan has 3 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: Akron -11.2, Western Michigan +11.0.
- Model alone: Akron 21% / Western Michigan 79%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Akron 15% / Western Michigan 85%. Market (vig removed): Akron 16% / Western Michigan 84%.
- Spread: Akron +15.25 · Total 49.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Western Michigan @ Akron Odds
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.