Model value
Kent State
34%
Final estimate
35%Market implied
Bowling GreenModel lean
66%
Final estimate
65%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-205FanDuelThis price grades the pickBest of books. A typical single book: -218
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 67%
MarketAt lock: 65%
Model lean: Bowling Green (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.6%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Kent State 28 - Bowling Green 33
Units
+0.49u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-3.6%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.49u is +$4.88 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -205 (FanDuel), model 67%, market 65%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 64.8% for the pick.
| Saved | Kent State best odds | Bowling Green best odds | Model (Bowling Green) | Market (Bowling Green) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +170 | -194 | 66% | 64% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +170 | -205 | 66% | 64% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +185 | -205 | 66% | 65% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +185 | -205 | 67% | 65% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +185 | -205 | 67% | 66% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +180 | -200 | 67% | 65% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +180 | -190 | 66% | 65% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +179 | -205 | 66% | 65% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Bowling Green 1378 vs Kent State 1332 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Bowling Green +1.8, Kent State -16.0.
- Model alone: Bowling Green 73% / Kent State 27%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Bowling Green 66% / Kent State 34%. Market (vig removed): Bowling Green 65% / Kent State 35%.
- Spread: Bowling Green -5.5 · Total 43.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Kent State vs. Bowling Green Week 11 Preview and Predictions
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.