Model value
OhioLikelier to win
51%
Final estimate
51%Market implied
Miami (OH)Underdog lean
49%
Final estimate
49%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at+100BetOnline.agThis price grades the pickBest of books. A typical single book: -102
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 49%
MarketAt lock: 49%
Model lean: Miami (OH) (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.3%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Ohio 17 - Miami (OH) 34
Units
+1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-2.3%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +1.00u is +$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at +100 (BetOnline.ag), model 49%, market 49%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 48.9% for the pick.
| Saved | Ohio best odds | Miami (OH) best odds | Model (Miami (OH)) | Market (Miami (OH)) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +104 | -118 | 53% | 52% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +100 | -115 | 53% | 52% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +100 | -115 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -112 | +100 | 49% | 49% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -112 | +100 | 49% | 48% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -117 | +100 | 49% | 48% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -113 | +102 | 49% | 48% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -110 | -102 | 49% | 49% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Miami (OH) 1449 vs Ohio 1586 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Miami (OH) +4.8, Ohio +17.5.
- Model alone: Miami (OH) 40% / Ohio 60%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Miami (OH) 49% / Ohio 51%. Market (vig removed): Miami (OH) 49% / Ohio 51%.
- Spread: Miami (OH) +1.25 · Total 47.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- College Football Week 11 Picks: Ohio vs. Miami (OH)
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.