Model value
BuffaloLikelier to win
55%
Final estimate
55%Market implied
Ball StateUnderdog lean
45%
Final estimate
45%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at+117BovadaThis price grades the pickBest of books. A typical single book: +112
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 45%
MarketAt lock: 45%
Model lean: Ball State (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.5%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
Buffalo 28 - Ball State 7
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-2.3%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at +117 (Bovada), model 45%, market 45%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 2): market-implied 45.0% for the pick.
| Saved | Buffalo best odds | Ball State best odds | Model (Ball State) | Market (Ball State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -138 | +120 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -138 | +125 | 44% | 43% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -137 | +125 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -130 | +125 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -132 | +117 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -132 | +117 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -132 | +117 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -132 | +117 | 45% | 45% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Ball State 1332 vs Buffalo 1490 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Ball State -3.5, Buffalo +8.0.
- Model alone: Ball State 42% / Buffalo 58%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Ball State 45% / Buffalo 55%. Market (vig removed): Ball State 45% / Buffalo 55%.
- Spread: Ball State +2.5 · Total 51.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Buffalo vs Ball State Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Week 11 2026
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.