Model value
Sacramento State
11%
Final estimate
12%Market implied
Central MichiganModel lean
89%
Final estimate
88%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-1000BetMGMThis price grades the pickBest of books. A typical single book: -1050
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 89%
MarketAt lock: 88%
Model lean: Central Michigan (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.7%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Sacramento State 7 - Central Michigan 28
Units
+0.10u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-3.3%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.10u is +$1.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -1000 (BetMGM), model 89%, market 88%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 2): market-implied 87.9% for the pick.
| Saved | Sacramento State best odds | Central Michigan best odds | Model (Central Michigan) | Market (Central Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +530 | -750 | 86% | 85% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +530 | -720 | 86% | 85% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +740 | -1000 | 89% | 88% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +740 | -1000 | 89% | 88% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +740 | -1000 | 89% | 88% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +740 | -1000 | 89% | 88% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +760 | -1000 | 89% | 88% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +760 | -1000 | 89% | 88% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Central Michigan 1445 vs Sacramento State 1327 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Central Michigan +0.8, Sacramento State -10.0.
- Model alone: Central Michigan 77% / Sacramento State 23%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Central Michigan 89% / Sacramento State 11%. Market (vig removed): Central Michigan 88% / Sacramento State 12%.
- Spread: Central Michigan -18.5 · Total 43.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Sacramento State @ Central Michigan Odds
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.