Model value
Massachusetts
15%
Final estimate
17%Market implied
ToledoModel lean
85%
Final estimate
83%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-625DraftKingsThis price grades the pickBest of books. A typical single book: -650
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 85%
MarketAt lock: 83%
Model lean: Toledo (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.5%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Massachusetts 0 - Toledo 24
Units
+0.16u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-3.4%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.16u is +$1.60 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -625 (DraftKings), model 85%, market 83%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 2): market-implied 83.3% for the pick.
| Saved | Massachusetts best odds | Toledo best odds | Model (Toledo) | Market (Toledo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +425 | -575 | 83% | 82% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +425 | -575 | 83% | 82% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +440 | -600 | 84% | 82% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +475 | -625 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +475 | -625 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +475 | -625 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +475 | -625 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +475 | -625 | 85% | 83% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Toledo 1563 vs Massachusetts 1325 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Toledo +3.8, Massachusetts -6.5.
- Model alone: Toledo 84% / Massachusetts 16%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Toledo 85% / Massachusetts 15%. Market (vig removed): Toledo 83% / Massachusetts 17%.
- Spread: Toledo -14.5 · Total 52.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- November 11, 2026: Massachusetts vs Toledo College Football Prediction Market
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.