Model value
James MadisonModel pick
79%
Model estimate
78%Market implied
App State
21%
Model estimate
22%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-425DraftKingsThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:30 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 79%
MarketAt lock: 78%
Model pick: James Madison (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -2.9%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 21, 2026, 10:30 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
James Madison 31 - App State 34
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-3.6%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 21, 2026, 10:30 AM ET: pick locked at -425 (DraftKings), model 79%, market 78%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 3): market-implied 78.1% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.