Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Marshall (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is -3.4%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at +100 (DraftKings), model 48%, market 48%.
| Saved | App State best odds | Marshall best odds | Model (Marshall) | Market (Marshall) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 68% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -135 | +114 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -135 | +114 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -120 | +105 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -120 | +100 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -120 | +100 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -120 | +100 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -120 | +100 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -120 | +100 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -120 | +100 | 48% | 48% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Saturday’s App State-Georgia State Game Sold Out · App State Athletics, Nov 6, 2026
Know Before You Go – App State · Marshall University Athletics, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Marshall 1472 vs App State 1397 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Marshall -5.5, App State -6.5.
- Model alone: Marshall 67% / App State 33%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Marshall 48% / App State 52%. Market (vig removed): Marshall 48% / App State 52%.
- Spread: Marshall +1.5 · Total 54.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- App State Football Looks to Snap Losing Streak Against Marshall
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.