Model value
Georgia StateLikelier to win
53%
Model estimate
54%Market implied
Arkansas StateUnderdog pick
47%
Model estimate
46%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at+115BovadaThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 47%
MarketAt lock: 46%
Model pick: Arkansas State (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is +0.8%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Georgia State 32 - Arkansas State 38
Units
+1.15u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-4.7%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +1.15u is +$11.50 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: pick locked at +115 (Bovada), model 47%, market 46%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 44.3% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.