Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Coastal Carolina (Toss-up). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.5%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -113 (FanDuel), model 53%, market 52%.
| Saved | Arkansas State best odds | Coastal Carolina best odds | Model (Coastal Carolina) | Market (Coastal Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 45% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -102 | -118 | 52% | 52% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +100 | -110 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +100 | -111 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +100 | -111 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +100 | -111 | 52% | 52% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +100 | -110 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +100 | -110 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +105 | -113 | 53% | 52% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +105 | -113 | 53% | 52% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Know Before You Go: Coastal Carolina vs. Arkansas State · Coastal Carolina University Athletics, Nov 11, 2026
Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina (Nov 14, 2026) Pregame · ESPN, Nov 8, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Coastal Carolina 1376 vs Arkansas State 1434 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Coastal Carolina +0.2, Arkansas State +1.8.
- Model alone: Coastal Carolina 47% / Arkansas State 53%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Coastal Carolina 53% / Arkansas State 47%. Market (vig removed): Coastal Carolina 52% / Arkansas State 48%.
- Spread: Coastal Carolina -1.5 · Total 51.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Kickoff for A-State Football Road Contest at Louisiana Tech Set for 6:00 PM on ESPN+
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.