Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Georgia Southern (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.6%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -215 (BetRivers), model 67%, market 67%.
| Saved | Georgia Southern best odds | Georgia State best odds | Model (Georgia State) | Market (Georgia State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 39% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -205 | +170 | 35% | 36% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -200 | +180 | 35% | 35% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -205 | +176 | 35% | 35% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -205 | +179 | 35% | 35% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -205 | +179 | 35% | 35% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -205 | +179 | 35% | 35% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -205 | +179 | 35% | 35% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -215 | +195 | 33% | 33% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -215 | +195 | 33% | 33% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Johnson Leads Eagles to Big Win Over Marshall · Georgia Southern University Athletics, Nov 8, 2026
Georgia Southern 49-13 Marshall (Nov 7, 2026) Game Recap · ESPN, Nov 8, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Georgia State 1428 vs Georgia Southern 1533 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Georgia State -7.0, Georgia Southern +14.2.
- Model alone: Georgia State 41% / Georgia Southern 59%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Georgia State 33% / Georgia Southern 67%. Market (vig removed): Georgia State 33% / Georgia Southern 67%.
- Spread: Georgia State +6 · Total 56.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Georgia Southern Prepares for Rivalry Game Against Georgia State
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.