Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Missouri State (Toss-up). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.6%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -115 (BetUS), model 53%, market 52%.
| Saved | New Mexico State best odds | Missouri State best odds | Model (Missouri State) | Market (Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 74% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -105 | -115 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +110 | -125 | 54% | 54% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +110 | -125 | 54% | 54% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +110 | -122 | 54% | 53% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +105 | -117 | 54% | 53% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +105 | -117 | 54% | 53% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +105 | -117 | 54% | 53% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +105 | -115 | 53% | 52% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +105 | -115 | 53% | 52% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Aggies Begin Final Stretch with Road Matchup Against Missouri State · New Mexico State University Athletics, Nov 10, 2026
New Mexico State @ Missouri State Odds · FanDuel Sportsbook, Nov 13, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Missouri State 1380 vs New Mexico State 1337 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Missouri State -0.5, New Mexico State -13.2.
- Model alone: Missouri State 73% / New Mexico State 27%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Missouri State 53% / New Mexico State 47%. Market (vig removed): Missouri State 52% / New Mexico State 48%.
- Spread: Missouri State -1.25 · Total 49.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Liberty 30-14 New Mexico State (Nov 7, 2026) Game Recap
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.