Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Model pick: New Mexico State (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -2.1%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Jacksonville State best odds | New Mexico State best odds | Model (New Mexico State) | Market (New Mexico State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET | -150 | +130 | 43% | 42% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET | -150 | +130 | 43% | 42% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM ET | -150 | +130 | 43% | 42% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:13 PM ET | -150 | +130 | 43% | 42% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:20 PM ET | -150 | +130 | 43% | 42% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -150 | +130 | 43% | 42% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET.
How to Watch Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State, Time, Date, TV, Prediction · Yahoo Sports, Oct 23, 2026
New Mexico State 30-24 Sam Houston (Oct 21, 2026) Game Recap · ESPN, Oct 22, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: New Mexico State 1378 vs Jacksonville State 1529 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: New Mexico State -4.0, Jacksonville State +4.5.
- Model estimate: New Mexico State 43% / Jacksonville State 57%. Market (vig removed): New Mexico State 42% / Jacksonville State 58%.
- Spread: New Mexico State +3 · Total 49.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- How to Watch Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State | Time, TV, Prediction
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.