Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Liberty (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.8%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -1600 (BetMGM), model 92%, market 91%.
| Saved | Middle Tennessee best odds | Liberty best odds | Model (Liberty) | Market (Liberty) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 92% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +1100 | -2100 | 93% | 92% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +1050 | -1600 | 92% | 91% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +1050 | -1600 | 92% | 91% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +950 | -1299 | 91% | 90% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +950 | -1400 | 92% | 90% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +950 | -1400 | 92% | 90% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +950 | -1400 | 92% | 90% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +1100 | -1600 | 92% | 91% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +1100 | -1600 | 92% | 91% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Game Day: MTSU · LibertyFlames.com, Nov 12, 2026
Will MTSU Football Pull Off Upset at Liberty, Become Bowl Eligible? Our Prediction · The Daily News Journal, Nov 13, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Liberty 1607 vs Middle Tennessee 1389 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Liberty +28.8, Middle Tennessee -0.2.
- Model alone: Liberty 90% / Middle Tennessee 10%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Liberty 92% / Middle Tennessee 8%. Market (vig removed): Liberty 91% / Middle Tennessee 9%.
- Spread: Liberty -21 · Total 53.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Liberty Flames: Nov 14, 2026
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.