Model value
New Mexico StateModel pick
55%
Model estimate
56%Market implied
Sam Houston
45%
Model estimate
44%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-135BovadaThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 20, 2026, 9:46 PM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 55%
MarketAt lock: 56%
Model pick: New Mexico State (Toss-up). At the locked price the estimated value is -3.4%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 20, 2026, 9:46 PM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
New Mexico State 30 - Sam Houston 24
Units
+0.74u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-1.8%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.74u is +$7.41 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 20, 2026, 9:46 PM ET: pick locked at -135 (Bovada), model 55%, market 56%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 10): market-implied 56.4% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.