Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Model pick: Missouri State (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is +0.6%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Sam Houston best odds | Missouri State best odds | Model (Missouri State) | Market (Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET | +200 | -215 | 68% | 67% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET | +200 | -215 | 68% | 67% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM ET | +200 | -215 | 68% | 67% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:13 PM ET | +200 | -215 | 68% | 67% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:20 PM ET | +200 | -215 | 68% | 67% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +200 | -215 | 69% | 67% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET.
Football Bears Back Home Tuesday to Host Sam Houston · Missouri State University Athletics, Oct 24, 2026
New Mexico State 30-24 Sam Houston (Oct 21, 2026) Game Recap · ESPN, Oct 22, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Missouri State 1372 vs Sam Houston 1284 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Missouri State -12.8, Sam Houston -21.5.
- Model estimate: Missouri State 69% / Sam Houston 31%. Market (vig removed): Missouri State 67% / Sam Houston 33%.
- Spread: Missouri State -6 · Total 50.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Prediction: Who'll Shine Bright on Wednesday Night?
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.