Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: South Alabama (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is +0.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -145 (BetMGM), model 59%, market 58%.
| Saved | Troy best odds | South Alabama best odds | Model (South Alabama) | Market (South Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 63% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +120 | -142 | 57% | 56% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +120 | -137 | 57% | 56% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +115 | -135 | 56% | 55% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +135 | -136 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +135 | -136 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +135 | -150 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +135 | -150 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +135 | -145 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +135 | -145 | 59% | 58% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
‘Battle for the Belt’: Recapping the 14 Previous South Alabama-Troy Rivalry Games · AL.com, Nov 12, 2026
Troy vs. South Alabama - Live Score - November 14, 2026 · FOX Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: South Alabama 1419 vs Troy 1411 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: South Alabama -4.2, Troy -13.8.
- Model alone: South Alabama 62% / Troy 38%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): South Alabama 59% / Troy 41%. Market (vig removed): South Alabama 58% / Troy 42%.
- Spread: South Alabama -3 · Total 55.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- South Alabama vs Troy Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Week 11 2026
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.